President Trump's proposal to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, could have major consequences for U.S. consumers. Together, these three countries account for nearly 45% of the food and beverage imports to the U.S., meaning everyday food items are at risk of becoming more expensive.
The U.S. imports about 20% of its food supply, and for many American families, food already represents a significant portion of their budgets—around 14% annually. With 28% of U.S. adults struggling to afford food and 13.5% of households facing food insecurity, any increase in prices could make it even more difficult for many to access the nutrition they need.
To understand the potential impact of these tariffs on food availability and prices, researchers at Trace One—a company focused on food and beverage industry compliance—studied the latest data from the USDA, U.S. Census Bureau, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Their analysis looked at trends in food imports, the share of imports in overall U.S. food consumption, key trade partners, and which food products are most affected by these changes below.
What is a Tariff?
A tariff is a tax or duty imposed by a government on imported goods. When goods are imported into a country, the government may charge a tariff to make those products more expensive than locally produced goods. Tariffs can be applied to a wide range of products, from food and raw materials to electronics and vehicles.
In the context of food imports, tariffs can lead to higher prices for products that rely on foreign sourcing. The goal of imposing tariffs is often to encourage consumers to buy domestic products, thus supporting local industries. However, tariffs can also lead to trade disputes and higher costs for consumers, as suppliers may pass the added costs onto buyers. In the case of the U.S. tariffs on food products, these price increases are particularly relevant for everyday essentials that depend heavily on imports.
Key Food Categories Affected by Import Tariffs
1. Fruits and Vegetables
A substantial portion of the U.S. fruit and vegetable supply is imported from Mexico and Canada. Items like avocados, tomatoes, berries, and bell peppers are among the most vulnerable. For instance, 77% of imported fresh vegetables in the U.S. come from Mexico, while Canada accounts for 96% of salmon exports to the U.S.
2. Grains and Cereals
Imports of grains and cereals are significant, with countries like Canada being major suppliers. Tariffs on these imports could lead to increased prices for products like bread, pasta, and breakfast cereals.
3. Dairy Products
Canada’s dairy industry is highly protected, with tariffs on milk reaching up to 270%. This has historically led to higher prices for dairy products in the U.S., and any changes in trade policies could further affect costs.
4. Meats and Seafood
Countries like Australia and New Zealand are important suppliers of beef, while nations such as Peru and Vietnam export seafood. Tariffs on these imports can disrupt supply chains and lead to higher prices for consumers.
5. Processed Foods
Prepared foods, including canned goods and frozen meals, often rely on ingredients sourced from tariff-affected countries. This dependency makes them susceptible to price increases due to tariffs.
Food Imports to the U.S. by Country
Mexico and Canada are the largest suppliers of food and beverages to the U.S., collectively accounting for 42% of total food imports. In 2023, Mexico exported $44 billion in food products, with beer as the top export, while Canada exported $38 billion, led by bread and pastries. European countries like Italy and France contribute significantly, mainly through wine exports.
Other key trade partners include Chile, known for its salmon, and Brazil, a major coffee supplier. From Asia, China, India, and Indonesia provide a range of products such as oils and shrimp. Australia and New Zealand are key suppliers of beef, while Peru and Vietnam export grapes and cashews.
In terms of specific food categories, bread and pastries dominate U.S. imports, valued at nearly $6.9 billion. Prepared foods, coffee, and frozen shrimp also make up a significant portion of imports, with beer leading the beverage category, followed by liqueurs, cordials, and wine.
The Impact on Your Pantry
As tariffs impact the availability and price of imported foods, it’s important to prepare for potential price hikes by securing your pantry with long-term storage solutions. Storing key pantry staples like rice, grains, beans, and dried fruit in Wallaby Mylar bags can help you lock in current prices and ensure you have a steady supply, even if imports become limited.
How to Store Vulnerable Foods
Here’s how to store vulnerable foods to ensure their longevity, even during periods of price instability due to tariffs:
Fruits and Vegetables
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Mylar Bags with Oxygen Absorbers: For dried fruits and vegetables, Wallaby Mylar bags with oxygen absorbers provide airtight storage that extends the shelf life for up to 30 years. These bags are designed to block out moisture and oxygen, which helps maintain freshness and prevents spoilage.
- Vacuum-Sealed Bags: Vacuum-sealing can also extend the shelf life of dried fruits and vegetables for 2-3 years. However, it is less effective in preventing moisture compared to Mylar bags.
Grains and Cereals
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Mylar Bags with Oxygen Absorbers: Store grains and cereals in Wallaby Mylar bags to keep them fresh for 20-30 years. The oxygen absorbers help prevent oxidation and spoilage, preserving the grains' nutritional value and taste.
- Food-Grade Buckets: Storing grains in food-grade buckets lined provides an alternative method for bulk storage, however this method can only keep grains fresh for 1-5 years. Add a 5 gallon mylar bag with oxygen absorbers to extend the shelf life to 30 years.
Dairy Products
- Mylar Bags with Oxygen Absorbers: Dairy products like powdered milk and cheese can benefit from being stored in Mylar bags with oxygen absorbers, extending shelf life to 20-30 years. Oxygen absorbers prevent spoilage and maintain the product's flavor and texture.
- Freezer Storage: Freezing dairy products can extend their shelf life to 6-12 months. However, the texture and quality of dairy products like cheese may degrade over time due to freezing.
Meats and Seafood
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Mylar Bags with Oxygen Absorbers: Freeze dried or dehydrated meats and seafood stored in Wallaby Mylar bags with oxygen absorbers can preserve texture, nutrients, and flavor for up to 30 years!
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Vacuum-Sealed Bags: Vacuum-sealing freeze dried and dehydrated meats and seafood can also preserve them for 1-3 years in the freezer, maintaining their freshness and texture. This option provides an excellent seal against air and moisture, although it can be more difficult to store in larger quantities
- Canning: Canning meat, when done correctly, can preserve meat for 1-5 years. Canning meat in pressure canners allows it to be shelf-stable at room temperature and retains its nutrients and flavor. Proper sealing and sterilization during the canning process are crucial to avoid spoilage.
Processed Foods
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Mylar Bags with Oxygen Absorbers: Store canned goods, spices, and other processed foods with less than 10% moisture content in Mylar bags with oxygen absorbers. This method will protect these items from light, moisture, and air, preserving their shelf life for 5-25 years depending on the food.
- Canning: For many fruits, vegetables, and some meats, home canning can provide storage for 1-5 years. However, proper technique and sealing are critical, and canned goods can be prone to spoilage if not stored correctly. Canned goods should also be rotated regularly to ensure freshness.
By incorporating these storage methods, you can ensure that even during times of price instability or supply chain disruptions, your food will remain fresh, nutritious, and safe for long-term consumption. Choosing the right storage method and understanding the expected shelf life for each type of food will help you maintain an efficient, sustainable food storage system.
How to Save on Rising Food Prices with Bulk Food Storage
In addition to long-term storage, bulk buying and efficient organization can save you money. By purchasing bulk foods now and storing them in Wallaby Mylar bags, you can protect your supply from rising costs due to tariffs. Additionally, using proper food storage methods helps avoid food spoilage, reducing waste and allowing you to stretch your food budget further.
Conclusion
The introduction of tariffs and trade policies can have a profound impact on the price and availability of many imported foods. Understanding which foods are most vulnerable and using proper food storage techniques, such as Mylar bags and oxygen absorbers, can help protect your pantry and save you money. By investing in long-term food storage solutions, you can ensure that your family has access to fresh, safe, and nutritious food—even in times of market disruption.
If you're looking to protect your food supply with high-quality, long-term storage options, Wallaby Goods offers premium Mylar bags, oxygen absorbers, and more. These products are designed to help you store your food effectively and preserve its freshness for extended periods.
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